Global crises and migration: from the Second World War to COVID-19
By Mandy Paul, Director Migration Museum, Major Projects, Research and Collections
The History Trust of South Australia’s Migration Museum tells the stories of South Australians and celebrates cultural diversity. When the museum opened in 1986, it was the first in the world to take migration as its subject. Even before the museum opened its doors, curators were working with communities to document, represent, and share people’s experiences of migration and of building new lives — this was not only about capturing history, but also about understanding and acknowledgement in the present, and looking towards the future. The language has shifted, from the 1980s ‘ethnic groups’ and ‘tolerance’ to today’s discussion of social cohesion and intercultural understanding, but the vision — a just society free of racism — remains as compelling as ever. In 2020, museological discourse recognises that museums are not neutral institutions somehow outside the social forces that shape the world beyond their walls.¹ Rather, museums reflect and influence the world, and socially conscious museums can, and should, foster critical thinking and leverage their expertise to contribute in positive and powerful ways to contemporary debates.
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global patterns of movement and migration, a shift observed by migration museums along with many other organisations keeping watch on world events. While the specifics of the Covid crisis are unique, there are precedents in our history that we can look to in order to think through how we, both as Australians and as global citizens, might respond — and that can contribute to discussion about migration that will help shape the future. When Treasurer Josh Frydenburg revealed in a round of interviews leading up to the 2020 budget that the government was expecting Australia to have its first net negative migration since 1946, it was time for a closer look.²
Australia’s migration program BC (Before COVID)
Australia’s population is more diverse than ever before. As the Australian Bureau of Statistics put it: ‘every single country from around the world was represented in Australia’s population in 2019’. Australia is a majority migrant nation: 30% of our population were born overseas, and half have a parent born overseas.³
Most permanent migrants arrive through the Migration Program. About 160,000 visas were issued through this program in the year ending 30 June 2019, down from a high of about 190,000 each year from 2013 to 2016.⁴ In addition, in the same year, a total of 18,762 resettlement visas were granted to refugees under the Humanitarian Program.⁵
These permanent migrants were joined by temporary migrants, mostly fee-paying international students and sponsored skilled workers. This migration stream is demand driven, and not subject to caps or targets. Since 2000, the number of temporary migrants entering Australia each year has been greater than the number of permanent migrants, fluctuating in numbers and composition in response to changing economic conditions and labour market needs.⁶
A key concept for understanding migration numbers is Net Overseas Migration, or NOM: the net gain or loss of population through immigration (overseas migrant arrivals) to Australia and emigration (overseas migrant departures) from Australia. In the year to 30 June 2019, NOM was 239,600. This is the country’s total population gain through migration.⁷
South Australia
Migration is a federal responsibility, and migration to South Australia tends to follow national trends. But here we attract a lower proportion of migrants than the other mainland states, and also suffer from significant internal emigration — that is, a net population loss to other states (often discussed as a ‘brain drain’ as young people leave to study or work elsewhere). This means that South Australia is dependent on migration for population growth. In fact, over the last five years, South Australia’s natural population increase (births minus deaths) has been roughly offset by net loss to internal emigration. Without migration from overseas, South Australia’s population would remain at a standstill.⁸
COVID strikes
Australia’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was shaped by both geography and history. As an island nation, Australia can effectively close its international borders. And a long history of controlling borders in terms of migration meant that this was quickly grasped, and acted on, as an option.
On 20 March 2020, Australia’s international borders were closed. Exceptions were made for Australian citizens, permanent residents, their immediate family members and people granted a special exemption. The granting of offshore visas under the Humanitarian Program had been suspended the previous day. Migration effectively came to a halt.
The combination of the pandemic itself and the government’s economic response, which excluded temporary migrants from income support programs, also had an immediate impact. Thousands of international students remained at home instead of coming to study in Australia, and about 300,000 other temporary visa holders left the country.⁹
By July the impact of the loss of a quarter’s migration and the outflow of temporary migrants on the annual figures was revealed: Australia’s NOM for 2019–2020 was estimated at 154,000.¹⁰
What now?
The 2020 federal budget, delayed to October by the economic impacts of COVID-19 and delivered after Australia had plummeted into recession in June (the worst downturn since the Great Depression), included a number of assumptions that reveal, and measures that will effect, changes in migration.
The budget assumes that a vaccine will be in place by the end of the 2021 calendar year, enabling Australia’s international borders to re-open around that time. On the other hand, that means closed borders for the 2020–2021 financial year, leading to the headline-grabbing prediction of net migration losses of 72,000 people. This figure assumes temporary migrants will continue to leave and won’t be replaced as the borders remain closed.
Migration usually makes up about two-thirds of Australia’s population growth. But ‘natural’ growth — people having babies — is also expected to drop due to economic uncertainty. The fertility rate is expected to slow from 1.69 per woman to 1.58, and this, combined with the net migration loss, will mean a total population growth of just 0.2%, the lowest in over a century.
In a pre-budget interview with SBS, the Treasurer explained: ‘Migration, population growth, is very important for the Australian economy. It’s one of the three P’s: population, participation, and productivity all drive economic growth’.¹¹ The importance of migration to economic growth in the Australian context is widely accepted. The 2016 Productivity Commission Inquiry into Migrant Intake into Australia cut to the heart of the matter, explaining that migration delivers a ‘demographic dividend’ to Australia and higher economic activity by increasing the proportion of people in the workforce and offsetting the ageing population.¹²
The 2020 budget included changes to migration programs which the government argues will speed the pace of recovery of both migration numbers and the economy, including prioritising talent-based visas for ‘the best and brightest’ and those for business investors who will bring $800,000 or more, and increasing the number of permanent migrants drawn from the pool of temporary migrants already in Australia. The cap of 160,000 for the Migration Program will remain, while the cap for the Humanitarian Program will be dropped by 5,000 to 13,750. The logic of these last two measures has been contested by advocacy groups including the Refugee Council of Australia, as lifting both these caps would be consistent with the aim of increasing migration when the borders re-open.¹³
What next?
For the last three decades, while Australia has enjoyed sustained economic growth, both the conservative and the Labor sides of politics have supported population growth through migration to underpin the nation’s prosperity. In May, when the country was still in lockdown to combat the first wave of the virus and the extent of the looming economic crisis was first becoming apparent, the first shots in what might yet become a corrosive public debate were fired.
The opposition (Labor) spokesperson for Home Affairs, Senator Kristina Keneally, led with what some might interpret as a classic ‘dog whistle’ when she stated that migration levels and composition should be reconsidered; and argued that ‘we must make sure that Australians get a fair go and a first go at jobs’.¹⁴ Former Race Discrimination Commissioner and Sydney University Professor Tim Soutphommasane was quick to respond, calling out what he characterized as ‘Trump-style populism’.
But an understanding of the long history of debates about migration in this country reveals another context, and where these arguments can lead. Keneally’s argument echoes those of the 1890s, when similar sentiments were mobilised as part of a racist campaign against immigration from Asia and for the establishment of the White Australia Policy. This policy, enshrined in one of the first Acts of the new federal Parliament of the new nation, Australia, in 1901, almost closed Australia’s borders, effectively limiting migration for the next 45 years. And as author George Megalogenis has demonstrated, effectively limiting economic growth along with it.¹⁵
The Treasurer has pointed out that the last time Australia had negative migration was in 1946, just after the end of the Second World War. That global crisis gave rise to a re-set of migration policy that would transform Australia. The mass migration program implemented from 1947 was partly based on the belief that Australia needed a larger population to defend itself, but also on the conviction that migration would underpin economic development. And while preferential treatment in the form of assisted passage for British migrants evidenced the continuation of the White Australia Policy, in time the demands of post-war migration and changing global discourse around rights and race would lead to its dismantling. The diversity of contemporary Australia has been built on these changes.
The government’s response to the current global COVID crisis in terms of migration policy has been articulated solely in terms of economic recovery. Socially conscious museums, through an understanding of history and people, can bring nuance to this public discussion, seeing an opportunity for further social transformation.
In 1946 millions of refugees were languishing in Displaced Persons camps across war-devastated Europe. The ‘DPs’ who came to Australia as part of the post-war migration program were the first of the 880,000 or so refugees who have, since then, enriched the country and culture. Australia is now home to people who have fled conflict and persecution from across the globe, mirroring geopolitical events of the last seven decades. The UNHCR estimates that at the end of 2019 there were 26 million refugees in the world, and 4.2 million asylum seekers. One COVID migration re-set Australia should consider is meeting our need for population growth through a more generous intake of refugees and asylum seekers.
And this re-set could be accompanied by a recognition of the impact of another global crisis that is unfolding simultaneously with COVID-19: climate change. Forced migration as a result of climate change is emerging as a new and urgent problem. Australia could be a leader in responding to this challenge, supporting in particular our Pacific neighbours who are already seeing dramatic changes as sea levels rise.
Making the future
The Migration Museum continues to work with communities, facilitating and sharing intercultural conversations with purpose. In the midst of global crises, these conversations underscore the interconnectedness of people across the planet and the impact of migration policies, past and present. Taking a closer look at the past suggests that Australia can meet its ‘P for population’ target while simultaneously improving its ‘C for (global) citizen’ credentials — and building a better future.
[1] For a cogent and accessible summary see the UK Museums Association’s Museums Change Lives: https://www.museumsassociation.org/campaigns/museums-change-lives/
[2] Sydney Morning Herald, ‘Migration will come back’: Budget to reveal first negative migration since 1946, https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/migration-will-come-back-budget-to-reveal-first-negative-migration-since-1946-20201002-p561hr.html
[3] Australian Bureau of Statistics, Migration Australia, https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia/latest-release
[4] Department of Home Affairs, 2018–2019 Migration Program Report, https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/report-migration-program-2018-19.pdf
[5] Department of Home Affairs, 2018–2019 Migration Program Report, https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/research-and-stats/files/australia-offshore-humanitarian-program-2018-19.pdf
[6] Parliament of Australia, Migration to Australia: a quick guide to the statistics, https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1617/Quick_Guides/MigrationStatistics
[7] Australian Bureau of Statistics, Migration Australia, https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/people/population/migration-australia/latest-release
[8] Plan SA, Population, https://plan.sa.gov.au/state_snapshot/population
[9] SBS News, Australia’s migration intake to fall 85 per cent due to coronavirus, Scott Morrison says, https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australia-s-migration-intake-to-fall-85-per-cent-due-to-coronavirus-scott-morrison-says
[10] Commonwealth of Australia, Economic and Fiscal Update July 2020, https://budget.gov.au/2020-efu/downloads/JEFU2020.pdf
[11]SBS News, Australia’s Net Migration Intake Drops to Negative Levels for the First Time Since WWII, https://www.sbs.com.au/news/australia-s-net-migration-intake-drops-to-negative-levels-for-the-first-time-since-world-war-ii
[12] Australian Government Productivity Commission, Migrant Intake into Australia, https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/migrant-intake/report/migrant-intake-report-overview.pdf pp. 3,14.
[13]Refugee Council of Australia, The Federal Budget: What it means for refugees and people seeking humanitarian protection, https://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/federal-budget-summary/
[14] Sydney Morning Herald, Do we want migrants to return in the same numbers? The answer is no, https://www.smh.com.au/national/do-we-want-migrants-to-return-in-the-same-numbers-the-answer-is-no-20200501-p54p2q.html
[15] See his 2015 book Australia’s Second Chance in which he marshalled decades of migration and economic data to make the case for the lock-step, causal, relationship between migration and economic prosperity in Australian history. See also his recent comments in The Guardian, The long shadow of the virus means there is no easy path back to prosperity, https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/10/the-long-shadow-of-the-virus-means-there-is-no-easy-path-back-to-prosperity
